BBRI IJ / BBRI.JK | UNDERPERFORM - Maintained | Share Price Rp6750 - Tgt. Rp7300
Banks | - by Mulya CHANDRA, CFA
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According to media reports, PT Pos Indonesia, the country’s sole postal provider, has ceased its pensioner loan partnership with BRI due to a fee disagreement. This should lead to the transfer of nearly Rp2tr in related loans from BRI to Mandiri, the post office’s new partner. Although the amount lost may be insignificant at 1% of BRI’s total loans, it is another warning sign that BRI’s businesses are under attack at a time when its micro lending business is languishing. Our contrarian Underperform rating and GGM target price are maintained.
Lippo Karawaci
LPKR IJ / LPKR.JK | TRADING BUY - Trading Call | Share Price Rp710 - Tgt. Rp800
Property Devt & Invt | - by Lydia TOISUTA
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The stock’s sideways movement since last year may be coming to an end. We believe LPKR’s asset sales to a REIT will boost earnings growth and be a near-term rerating catalyst. FY11 core profit was 13% ahead of our forecast and 4% above consensus mainly due to non-operating items. Our FY12-13 forecasts are raised by 32-33% to account for the two mall sales; our DCF-based target price is higher by 14%. Our rating is upgraded to Trading Buy from Neutral.
ANTM IJ / ANTM.JK | UNDERPERFORM - Maintained | Share Price Rp1820 - Tgt. Rp1700
Mining | - by Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA / Erindra KRISNAWAN
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Despite FY11 earnings meeting our expectations as well as consensus forecasts, we expect profitability to sink further due to the still weak nickel prices and higher interest expenses. FY11 core profit accounted for 102% of our full-year forecast and 100% of consensus estimates. We maintain our FY12-13 EPS forecasts following the in-line results, and introduce FY14 forecasts. Our DCF-based price target (WACC of 9.5%) and our Underperform rating are unchanged
Sampoerna Agro
SGRO IJ / SGRO.JK | OUTPERFORM - Maintained | Share Price Rp3550 - Tgt. Rp4200
Plantations | - by Erwan TEGUH / Erisca WIRAATMADJA
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After successfully entering the sago business, rubber is now on SGRO’s agenda. Higher-margin nucleus palms should also contribute more. Its expansion and diversification are fit for conservative investors, while attractive valuations against peers suit value-seekers. Slowly but surely, SGRO is boosting margins by adding more nucleus estates. Our conservative forecasts call for stable ROEs of 20%, with upside from better-than-expected yields. Maintain Outperform and target price at 12x P/E (15% discount to AALI)
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