RISET FR CIMB 09 April 2013 : 1.Strategy | Good micro, shaky macro OVERWEIGHT - Maintained by Erwan TEGUH, Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA

RISET FR CIMB 09 April 2013 :

1.Strategy   | Good micro, shaky macro
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
by Erwan TEGUH, Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA 

4Q12 earnings improved on 3Q12's, leading to upgrades. The earnings uptrend helped the market to do well, re-rating by 1 s.d. above the 3-year mean. But macro pressure is building and Apr's earnings momentum is set to turn given our more bearish view on coal. Our bottom-up JCI target is raised by 3% to 5,250 pts but the implied 2013/14 P/Es do not budge by much given the 2-3% earnings upgrades. While we remain Overweight on Indonesia, inflation and rupiah concerns warrant a more defensive stance in 2Q. Our defensive picks for Apr are PGAS, JSMR and INDF.
 
Defensive Picks (Screening for 12 companies whose demand is not affected by high inflation, with high dividend yield as low as beta, we come up with :

TLKM Neutral TP 10,900
PGAS Outperform TP 5,550
GGRM Outperform TP 59,000
INDF Outperform TP 9,000
KLBF Outperform TP 1,300
JSMR Outperform TP 7,300
ISAT Neutral TP 7,400
MYOR Outperform TP 33,000
CTRA Outperform TP 1,350
SMSM Outperform TP 2,900
TOTL Outperform TP 1,120
ASGR Outperform TP 2,100

Sector & Stock Performances : domestic is king.
Our calls last month when picked stocks on bottop up babis for value and growth performed well in Mar, outperforming JCI by 5-27%, with the expection of CTRP, BMRI and PNBN. YTD, all of our last month's picks have been among the top performers.

(09 April 2013)


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Source : Listri Valsa
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