UBS Revised its long-term outlook on Brent crude prices

UBS says bearish fundamentals that support $92 a barrel in 2016 and onward, not $95, as previously projected. 

Based on our updated balances out to 2020, we see OPEC spare production capacity rising to around 6% of total global oil production capacity from mid-decade, a distinct improvement from an estimated 4% for 2013 (assuming OPEC holds its production flat in 2H13) and a very tight 3% in 2011 and 2012, respectively, when oil markets were hit by the Libyan crisis and then the impact of western sanctions on Iran's crude exports.

UBS  expects a rebound to $110 per barrel in the short-term as demand from consumers and refineries increase, and geopolitical tensions take hold. But come the fourth quarter, prices are likely to begin dipping.

Emerging economies have driven new demand, but they are beginning to slow their pace of growth. UBS revised its demand outlook lower for China, India, and Brazil.